Tuesday, June 19, 2018

There's one Dow stock having a great day �� Verizon

Verizon was the only member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading significantly into the green on Tuesday.

The gains came after Deutsche Bank upgraded the wireless provider, saying the shares were relatively cheap.

The stock gained 1.9 percent Tuesday, also boosted by investors betting that its domestic revenues will be shielded from fears of a trade war hitting the broader market. Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Merck, Procter & Gamble and Travelers traded slightly higher for a similar reason, but none had the gains of Verizon.

Deutsche Bank upped its rating for Verizon to buy, and increased its price target to $56, roughly $8 above where the stock was trading Tuesday.

Verizon is trading at a discount compared with its telecom peers, Deutsche Bank analyst Matthew Niknam wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. His 12-month price target implies 23 percent total return from current levels.

Niknam highlighted improving financial health in the overall U.S. wireless market and said Verizon, the nation's largest carrier, is set to benefit from investors' confidence.

"Wireless fundamentals are meaningfully improving, following a heightened wave of aggressive competitive activity in recent years," Niknam said.

Consolidation in the market, most recently with T-Mobile and Sprint's plans to merge, "could be viewed favorably by investors when considering the longer-term health of the U.S. Wireless market," Niknam said.

Still, the bank said rising interest rates have historically been a headwind for telecoms like Verizon. Deutsche Bank macroeconomists expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hit 3.5 percent by the end of 2018. Yields were around 2.92 Tuesday.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 300 points at the open Tuesday, erasing all of its gains for the year. The 30-stock index was dragged down by Boeing and Caterpillar, which are considered to be bellwethers for trade tensions.

President Donald Trump asked the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs and Monday night said if China "refuses to change its practices" and continues with its own newly declared tariffs, then the additional levies would be imposed on Beijing.

In response, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said the latest threat of more tariffs violates previous negotiations and Washington "has initiated a trade war that violates market laws and is not in accordance with current global development trends."

Shares of Verizon have fallen about 8.5 percent this year, and were trading above $48 Tuesday.

Monday, May 28, 2018

Can This Former Home Depot Executive Turn Lowe's Around?

Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) surprised everyone by poaching J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) CEO Marvin Ellison to lead the home improvement company. Ellison was a steady hand at the department store chain as it sought to back away from the precipice of bankruptcy. But is he the right person to help Lowe's turn around its business?

Lowe's has long played second fiddle to Home Depot, though under the tutelage of retiring CEO Robert Niblock, it positioned itself as an effective alternative to the industry leader.

Being a distant second, however, during a housing boom that allowed the competition to generate more than twice the returns for its shareholders is cold comfort. And Ellison may not be the one to shift that dynamic.

Lowe's employee helping woman in paint department

Image source: Lowe's.

Slow and steady

Without question, J.C. Penney needed a calming influence after the tumultuous stint of former CEO Ron Johnson, whose strategy to drag the old-line retailer into the 21st century nearly wrecked the business. In theory, he may have been right to sever the retailer's reliance on so-called doorbuster sales in favor of everyday low pricing. But that was not what customers wanted, and they fled J.C. Penney in droves, pushing it to the brink.

It was only after interim CEO Mike Ullman had undone virtually all that Johnson implemented that the retailer was able to stop the hemorrhaging and begin to heal itself. Ellison was then brought in to keep Penney heading in the same direction.

And he was largely effective at that. In announcing Ellison's resignation as chairman and CEO, J.C. Penney extolled how he had overseen the retirement of $1.4 billion worth of debt, renewed and enhanced its revolving credit facility, and put the retailer in a significantly better financial position.

Yet it's also true that much of the strategy he oversaw was implemented at Ullman's direction -- Ellison was brought on to assure investors there would be no major changes again, and that's how it has played out. J.C. Penney, despite continuing difficulties not wholly of its own making, is a much better business than it was before Ellison was brought on.

Ready to shake, rattle, and roll

The question is whether that's what Lowe's needs right now. It's a given Ellison knows the home improvement business cold, certainly much more than the soft goods he presided over at J.C. Penney. His 12-year track record at Home Depot as executive vice president of U.S. stores, which made him the senior operations leader for the big-box retailer's 2,000 locations, ensures that he can hit the ground running.

Maybe that's what Lowe's was looking for in its next CEO: someone who can make sure the trains run on time. Niblock has set the stage for Lowe's to pivot toward the professional contractor by making several acquisitions in the maintenance, repair, and operations sector over the past two years, and the company wants someone keeping the business pointed in that direction.

Yet that may not be enough for Lowe's to make any real headway against Home Depot, which isn't exactly standing still. Notwithstanding its first-quarter earnings report, which showed an appreciable slowdown that it credibly blamed on the weather, Home Depot is expected to bounce back sharply this quarter and continue growing throughout the year.

Housing market conditions remain favorable, and it doesn't seem like Home Depot will easily give up market share. And because the industry leader also has a surprisingly strong digital footprint that you wouldn't necessarily expect from a place selling lumber, drywall, and nails, Lowe's has a lot of catching up to do.

Ellison has plenty of expertise cutting costs and increasing employee productivity, but can he push Lowe's to be innovative and nimble in the omnichannel world? I'm not so sure.