Saturday, August 31, 2013

Repayment of 12% IDBI SLR Bonds 2012 (62nd Series)

Investors holding the bonds in the form of Promissory Notes (PNs) may please tender the same duly discharged at the concerned branch of IDBI Bank Ltd. where they were last enfaced, by February 15, 2012 to facilitate repayment in time. 

Bondholders, having investment in the form of �Entry-in-Account� with IDBI Bank, should furnish a receipt in the prescribed form (Form XIV) for the principal amount, along with the relevant Certificate of Holding to Investor Services of India Ltd, (ISIL), IDBI Building, 2nd floor, �A� Wing, Sector 11, Plot No.39, 40 & 41, CBD Belapur, Navi Mumbai 400 614 (Telephone No.022 2757 9636-40), by February 18, 2012, for obtaining the repayment in time.

In case the bonds are held in Demat form (ISIN: INE008A09257), bondholders need not furnish any document. The bonds will automatically be debited from the respective Client ID/DPID through NSDL/CDSL and redemption proceeds will be sent/remitted to the investors. Bondholders are requested to update their address and bank details, if necessary, with their Depository Participants.

Did Larry Summers Really Save the World?

When you think about the overall and ever-changing Fed, it's important to pay attention to every detail, especially now, while the president's decision on who will succeed chairman Ben Bernanke is postponed, writes MoneyShow's Howard R. Gold.

President Obama has postponed his decision on who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and current Fed vice chair Janet Yellen, the front runners.

Some senators and many rank-and-file Democrats back Yellen, while Summers has the strong support of White House economists and Wall Streeters. Former Deputy Treasury Secretary Roger Altman, now executive chairman of Evercore Partners, states the case that Summers is "battle-hardened" and would be a good firefighter-in-chief in future international crises:

"…Summers had the key role in the Clinton Treasury during both the Asian financial crisis and the Mexican default. And, later, in the Obama White House during the huge credit crisis in 2009."

Leaving aside Summers' close financial ties to Wall Street firms he would oversee as Fed chairman; his role in deregulating banking and derivatives in the late 1990s, and his disastrous tenure as president of Harvard, did he really "save the world," as his supporters claim? Or did his actions pave the way for something much worse?

Summers' reputation as a crisis manager was burnished in a February 1999 Time cover story, featuring him, Rubin, and then-Fed chairman Alan Greenspan as The Committee to Save the World.

I recently reread that famous story. Written by Joshua Cooper Ramo, it was a piece of staggering puffery, full of the myopic triumphalism of the late Clinton era. Here's one example:

"In late-night phone calls, in marathon meetings, and over bagels, orange juice, and quiche, these three men—Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan, and Larry Summers—are working to stop what has become a plague of economic panic…

"What holds them together is a passion for thinking and an inextinguishable curiosity about a new economic order that is unfolding before them like an Alice in Wonderland world."

I could go on—especially the part when Rubin says "the joy of working with Greenspan lies in both the power of his intellect and the sweetness of his soul"—but I won't.

In his autobiography, The Age of Turbulence, Greenspan called the three "economic foxhole buddies" who met for long breakfast meetings each week, for more than four years.

These "foxhole buddies" spent the mid- to late 1990s going from Mexico to Thailand to Russia, bailout buckets in hand, saving the global economy from itself.

Read Howard's take on how U.S. investors got burned in emerging markets on MoneyShow.com.

But the Committee's most enduring legacy may have been the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management, which probably undermined whatever was left of moral hazard on Wall Street.

LTCM, launched by legendary Salomon Brothers trader John Meriwether (of Liar's Poker fame), included two Nobel Prize winners, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes. But as world markets seized up following the Russian currency crisis of August 1998—15 years ago, this month—the private partnership, betting heavily on risky assets and leveraged 55 to 1, found itself hemorrhaging hundreds of millions of dollars overnight.

NEXT: Panic on Wall Street

Page 1 | Page 2 | Next Page

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Tyson Reaches 52-Week High - Analyst Blog

Shares of meat processor Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) reached a new 52-week high of $26.74 on Jul 8, following its acquisition of California-based Circle Foods LLC last month. The share price of the stock has been on the rise and gained 7.0% since the acquisition on Jun 3. In fact, this is the third time Tyson has attained a new 52-week high post-acquisition, with previous highs of $26.05 on Jul 1 and $25.92 on Jun 18.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock closed at $26.57 on Jul 8, recording a healthy return of 33.5% on a year-to-date basis. The company's long-term estimated earnings growth rate is 8.5%. Average volume of shares traded over the last three months came in at approximately 3,180K.

Acquisition of Circle Foods

Tyson acquired Circle Foods from Montreal-based private equity firm Claridge Inc. to strengthen its presence in the Mexican food category. Circle Foods owns popular brands like Nuevo Grille and Tortillaland handheld Mexican products, Tortillaland uncooked tortillas and ROTILAND Indian flat breads. It also produces private brands for several customers.

Mexican food is becoming increasingly popular in the U.S. processed food industry. The acquisition will expand Tyson's food offerings with popular brands of Circle Foods.

The acquisition also includes Circle Foods' state-of-the-art facility in San Diego, which is known for its food safety management system. The plant produces burritos, enchiladas, chimichangas, tacos, quesadillas and tamales, as well as tortillas and Indian flat breads. Prior to Circle Foods, Tyson acquired the Mexican snacks and tortilla producer, Don Julio Foods of Clearfield, Utah in Apr 2013 to add Mexican cuisine to its portfolio.

Further, Tyson has bright prospects for 2013 with its constant focus on innovation. New product launches in 2013 are expected to drive Tyson's profitability. In addition, the expectation of reduced corn prices in 2013 will prove to be a boon for this meat producer as corn serves as the main! feed for chicken.

Tyson thus expects to achieve top-line sales growth of 3% to 4% every year. Value added sales are expected to grow within 6% to 8%, while international sales are expected to increase 12% to 16% during fiscal 2013. The company also aims to maintain bottom-line growth rate of 10% in the long term.

Other Stocks to Consider

Other meat producers in the industry that are worth considering include Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM) and Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (PPC). Both the companies hold a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Another company in the consumer staples sector that holds a Zacks Rank #1 is Flower Foods Inc. (FLO).

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

3 Retirement Planning Tactics to Adopt Before You Hit 50

Hispanic Couple Working In Home Office Looking WorriedMark Bowden, Getty Images Well over half of Americans now in their 40s are at risk of experiencing a decline in their standard of living after they retire, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. But adopting the right retirement planning strategies at this phase of your life will help you avoid financial disaster in your golden years. Here are three retirement strategies to deploy before blowing out your 50 birthday candles. 1. Price out a year of retirement expenses It may sound obvious, but you have to start by figuring out how much it'll cost you to live in retirement. And to do , you'll first need to define what you want your retirement to look like. Does your definition of happiness involve spending a large amount of time reading books on your porch? Traveling extensively? Volunteering? Or working part-time? Then there are the more mundane financial items to consider. For example, will you have your mortgage paid off? How much will you require for living expenses and utilities? How much will you budget for health care costs and leisure? How you answer these questions will define what income needs you'll have in retirement. But don't feel overwhelmed. You can use Vanguard's retirement expenses worksheet to come up with a concrete number for how much money you'll be spending each year in retirement. 2. Figure out if you're saving enough To know if you'll have a shot at being able to cover your retirement expenses, you need to calculate your retirement income. How much money will you receive from Social Security, pensions, and other sources of income? Do you intend to work part-time? How much income can you expect to receive from your 401(k)s and IRAs? Total up your anticipated income. Naturally, there are levels of uncertainty involved in any calculation made decades in advance, but it is possible to get a reasonably good idea of where you stand. For help, take a look at Vanguard's retirement income worksheet. Next, the moment of truth -- it's time to see how close you are to your dream retirement with your current savings plan.

Check out Fidelity's Retirement Quick Check tool, which can project how much money you'll need, compare it to what you're on track to have, and identify changes you can make to address any shortfall. The tool also factors in inflation assumptions, so that you don't have that figure that out. 3. If you're coming up short, strategically redirect your dollars If the gap between your expected sources of income and your future needs is sizable, the first thing you need to do is reassess your current spending, find places to cut, and redirect every dollar you can into your retirement accounts. To help further close the gap, you have options. You can work longer and delay retirement by a few years. Consider downsizing your future plans -- for example, you can decide you'll do less travelin in retirement. If you're looking for ways to significantly decrease your pre-retirement expenses, you could sell your existing house and move into something smaller, especially if you become an empty nester. In your 50s, you've got to make saving for retirement your No. 1 priority by putting your needs ahead of others'. It's a hard truth to face, but remember that there are alternatives for your dependents (e.g., loans for funding a child's college expenses). Retirement savings is all on you. If you haven't already done so, consider seeking guidance from a financial planner who can provide you with recommendations that are more customized to your particular situation. Don't wait another day Retirement is getting closer each day. So make the most of the years you have left to save. By estimating your retirement expenses, identifying your shortfalls, and taking steps to redirect your dollars toward retirement savings, you'll reap the glorious reward of a truly golden retirement.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Will Microsoft See a Boost From a Reorganization?

With shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) trading around $34, is MSFT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Microsoft is engaged in developing, licensing, and supporting a wide range of software products and services. The company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to customers. It operates in five segments: Windows & Windows Live Division, Server and Tools, Online Services Division, Microsoft Business Division, and Entertainment and Devices Division. As a mature company, Microsoft is also offering a stable dividend that is currently yielding around 2.67 percent annually.

Microsoft will reportedly release details about its reorganization this coming Thursday. Analysts are expecting CEO Steven Ballmer to gather the company's focus around software and devices for consumers and businesses. Many of the company's top executives are expected to be shuffled around, although it doesn't seem as though a successor for Ballmer is yet in place. Through its array of divisions and known reorganization, Microsoft will be able to provide products and services to a wide range of consumers and businesses across different industries worldwide.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Microsoft stock has been on a powerful move higher over the last couple of years. The stock is now consolidating a bit after such an impressive run so it may need a little more time before its next move. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Microsoft is trading slightly above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

MSFT

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Microsoft options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Microsoft Options

24.30%

36%

33%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Microsoft’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Microsoft look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

20.00%

-2.56%

-22.06%

-108.70%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

17.71%

2.78%

-7.83%

3.97%

Earnings Reaction

3.36%

0.90%

-2.91%

-1.76%

Microsoft has seen mixed earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been optimistic with Microsoft’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Microsoft stock done relative to its peers, Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and sector?

Microsoft

Oracle

Apple

Google

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

28.44%

-5.60%

-21.26%

27.85%

12.58%

Microsoft has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Microsoft is a software giant that will soon see a reorganization in hopes of increasing their competitiveness. The stock has been on a strong path to higher prices but is now digesting recent gains. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenue figures have been on the rise which have maintained investors optimistic about the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Microsoft has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Microsoft to continue to OUTPERFORM.

The Irrational Retirement Choices We Make

Funny thing about the way we make key decisions on when and how to retire: Often, we're not very rational. And a few new, fascinating studies just presented at the annualRetirement Research Consortium meeting in Washington, D.C., prove it.

By "not very rational," I don't mean that our choices are nutty. We're just not doing what economists say we should be doing. Janet Novack of Forbes recently wrote a smart piece about annuities along these lines, noting that economists typically say retirees should convert their savings into these monthly-income-for-life products — but most people don't.

(MORE: How to Take Your Pension: Lump Sum or Annuity?)

There's actually a good reason why economists characterize retirees and pre-retirees as irrational about such things as when to claim Social Security and stop working full-time: These choices are as much psychological as they are financial.

"Is a good decision one that gives you the best economic outcome or what makes you the happiest or most comfortable? That's hard to say," said Suzanne Shu, an assistant professor at UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management, and a co-author of one of the new studies. "

Here's how four of the studies say Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s make retirement choices today – irrationally in the first three cases, but rationally in the last one:

Why So Many Claim Social Security So Early

Economists, financial planners and, yes, Next Avenue writers typically recommend delaying Social Security benefits until age 70, rather than grabbing them as soon as allowed, at 62. That's because, as Kerry Hannon just wrote in "5 Cures for Women's Retirement-Spending Paralysis," the size of your checks will be larger.

Social Security benefits grow by 8%  annually for every year you delay claiming between your "full retirement age" (66 to 67 for people born after 1943) and age 70; your benefits are cut if you start taking Social Security between age 62 and your full retirement age.

(MORE: 4 Costly Social Security Mistakes to Avoid)

James Mahaney, a vice president at Prudential, says you could potentially double your initial Social Security payments by waiting until age 70 to start collecting.

And yet, a paper by Shu and John Payne of Duke University's Fuqua School of Business reports that 50% of Americans start collecting Social Security at 62 or within two months of leaving the labor force; 80% or more claim benefits before their full retirement age.

How come?

To find out, Shu and Payne surveyed 3,000 adults 35 to 65 and found that many people said they intend to claim early due to what you might call the "It's my money!" rationale.

"There's a feeling of 'I contributed to Social Security all these years and I want to be sure I get some of my money out before I die, so if I'm hit by a bus tomorrow, I'll know I got something,'" Shu told me.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

OBJE Reached Testing Milestone with Creature Tavern (OTCBB:OBJE, OTCMKTS:CLNO)

obje

Obscene Interactive (OBJE)

Last Friday, OBJE had shed (-8.97%) down -0.035 at $.355 with 24,536 shares in play at the close (ref. google finance June 21, 2013 – Close), but don't let this get you down.

Obscene Interactive, the gaming subsidiary of OBJ Enterprises and its partners reached a new milestone in their pursuit of a share of a global games industry forecast to grow to $86.1 billion in 2016. The joint venture previously reported mobile testing will begin next week on Creature Tavern, a gaming app poised to begin generating revenue this year.

The game could be hitting the market at exactly the right time. Market analyst Newzoo predicted last week that mobile gaming will grow at an average rate of 19 percent for smartphones and 48 percent for tablets, grossing $13.9 billion and $10 billion, respectively, in 2016. Combined, mobile gadgets will take a 27.8 percent share of the global gaming market, up nearly ten percentage points compared to this year.

Take a look at Obscene Interactive (OBJE) 5 day chart:

objechart

clno

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (OTCMKTS:CLNO) (www.cleantechtransit.net) through its Discovery Carbon subsidiary, develops emissions offset strategies for companies, municipalities, and countries. CLNO currently has surged (+30.00%) up +0.030 at $.130 with 1,747,826 shares in play at the close (ref. google finance June 21, 2013 – Close). Last Friday morning (June 21, 2013), this company hit as low as $.102 and as high as $.148. The fact that their is over a million shares in play all week only ignites the excitement that CLNO brings to the table.

Last Friday (June 21) CLNO's daily range was at ($.148 – $.102) currently at $.130 would be considered a (+11718.18%) gain above the 52 wk low of $.0011. Eventhough CLNO has surged (+30.00%) up +0.030 at $.130 with 1,747,826 shares in play at the close (ref. google finance June 21, 2013 – Close), the stock is up +8566.67% since the concerning dates of December 24, 2013 – June 21, 2013. +8566.67% is the 6 month high and rightly so.

Earlier this month (June 3), CLNO acquired control of Discovery Carbon Environmental Securities Corporation ("Discovery"). The acquisition advances the strategy of developing significant market share in the alternative clean energy sector. Discovery's proprietary GreenTrees™ for renewable energy, and EvoCert™ environmental credits for offsetting business and individual carbon foot prints are some of the exciting products Discovery provides to clients throughout the world.

CLNO reported last Friday (June 21), that it has acquired 81% of the issued and outstanding shares of Discovery Carbon Environmental Securities Corporation ("Discovery"), a Nevada corporation. The acquisition advances the strategy of developing significant market share in the alternative clean energy sector. Discovery's proprietary GreenTrees™ for renewable energy, and EvoCert™ environmental credits for offsetting business and individual carbon foot prints are some of the exciting products Discovery provides to clients throughout the world.

The Exchange Agreement between the parties required that at least 80% of Discovery's issued and outstanding shares be exchanged for shares of the Company's common stock, in restricted form. The parties are now in the final stages of closing the transaction. As part of the closing of this acquisition, the Company has announced that it will be changing its name to EQCO2, Inc. as well as implementing a 1 for 5 forward stock split for its common stock.

eqco2video

To view EQCO2 video click URL http://www.crwetube.com/media/billy-barnwell-ceo-of-eqco2-talks-about-the-compan

Keep in mind, (June21) CLNO closed at $.13 with 1,747,826 in play (ref. google finance June 21, 2013 – Close). (June20) CLNO closed at $.10 with 1,644,340 in play (ref. google finance June 20, 2013 – Close). (June19) CLNO closed at $.09 with 1,786,438 in play (ref. google finance June 19, 2013 – Close). (June18) CLNO closed at $.08 with 1,224,685 in play (ref. google finance June 18, 2013 – Close). (June17) CLNO closed at $.06 with 2,681,749 in play (ref. google finance June 17, 2013 – Close). (June14) CLNO closed at $.09 with 4,923,706 in play (ref. google finance June 14, 2013 – Close). (June 13), CLNO closed at $.09 with 2,457,486 in play (ref. google finance June 13, 2013 – Close). (June 12) CLNO closed at $.07 with 2,067,313 in play (ref. google finance June 12, 2013 – Close). (June 11) CLNO closed at $.04 with 1,978,366 in play (ref. google finance June 11, 2013 – Close). (June 10) CLNO closed at $.03 with 1,134,672 in play (ref. google finance June 10, 2013 – Close).

Now take a look at the Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO ) 5 day chart:

clnochart

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Senate Banking to Hold Confirmation Hearing for New SEC Commissioners

SEC LogoThe Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing Thursday for President Barack Obama’s SEC nominees—Kara Stein and Michael Piwowar.

Stein, an aide to Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., will replace SEC Commissioner Elisse Walter, a Democrat, and Piwowar, an economist on the Senate Banking Committee’s staff, will replace Troy Paredes, a Republican.

If confirmed by the Banking Committee and then by the full Senate, Piwowar and Stein will enter the commission at a time when lots of rulemakings are up in the air—namely creating a fiduciary rule for brokers and making further reforms to money-market funds.

Paredes’ term expired on June 5. Walters’ term technically expired on June 5, 2012, but she can stay in office until the end of this year.

Piwowar’s term would expire on June 5, 2018, and Stein’s term would expire on June 5, 2017.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Johnson, D-S.D., said in a statement when the two nominations were announced in late May that Stein “is a smart, dedicated public servant who has done superb work for Senator Reed on issues before the committee for over a decade. I look forward to supporting Kara’s nomination, and I am confident she will make an outstanding commissioner.”

Piwowar, Johnson said, “has extensive experience working on securities issues. Both of their experiences will serve them well as they work to fulfill the SEC’s mission of protecting investors and ensuring a fair marketplace.” Johnson said he looked forward “to moving both their nominations forward.”

AdvisorOne reported in early April that Piwowar and Stein would be Obama’s replacement picks for Walters and Paredes.

---

Check out SEC Enforcement: Morgan Keegan Fund Directors Settle Over Botched Valuations on AdvisorOne.

Friday, August 23, 2013

UBS Improves Profits 32%; U.S. Advisors Top $1M in Average Fees

UBS (UBS) said Tuesday that its second-quarter profit improved 32% to 690 million Swiss francs ($742 million), or 0.18 Swiss francs per share, from 524 million Swiss francs ($563 million), or 0.14 Swiss francs per share, a year ago. (In the first quarter, profits were 988 million Swiss francs–about $1.06 billion–or 0.26 Swiss francs a share.)

Sales across the company grew 15% year over year to 7.4 billion Swiss francs ($8 billion), though they dropped 5% from the earlier quarter.

"I am very pleased with our performance this quarter. The results show that our strategy is right, and we're ahead on execution,” said Group CEO Sergio P. Ermotti, in a statement. “Every quarter since we set the strategy in 2011, we have executed it in a very clear and disciplined way building an unmatched capital position and delivering for our clients.”

The non-U.S. Wealth Management operations delivered their “highest profit in four years excluding charges related to the Swiss-UK tax agreement and restructuring costs” while drawing “robust inflows,” the company said.

Wealth Management Americas

The group’s financial-advisor headcount grew by 34 from last quarter and by 78 from last year to 7,099.

Invested assets per financial advisors stand at $126 million, close to last quarter’s results and up 11% from $114 million in the year-ago period.

Average annualized fees & commissions per financial advisor are $1,012,000–an improvement of 3% from $984,000 in the first quarter and up 12% from the second quarter of 2012.

(Rival Merrill Lynch (BAC) said that its advisors also have yearly production levels of over $1 million, though Morgan Stanley’s reps (MS) have annual fees & commissions of $866,000 as of June 30.)

In Wealth Management Americas, net new money totaled 2.7 billion Swiss francs ($2.8 billion), a drop from 8.6 billion Swiss francs ($9.2 billion) in the first quarter and from 3.7 billion Swiss francs ($4 billion) in the prior quarter. (The unit has had 12 consecutive quarters of net inflows, and its results exclude interest and dividend income.)

“The second quarter result mainly reflects outflows related to financial advisors employed with UBS for more than one year and included client withdrawals of around 2.2 billion Swiss Francs or $2.5 billion associated with annual income tax payments as well as seasonal declines compared with the first quarter,” the company explained in a report.

As a result, the annualized net new money growth rate for the second quarter was 1.3% vs. 4.4% in the prior quarter and below the target range of 2% to 4%, according to UBS.

Overall, the unit had a pretax profit of $258 million, up 3% from $251 million in the prior quarter and a jump of 21% from $214 million a year ago.

Assets stood at $892 billion as of June 30, a slight increase from $891 billion on March 31 and an increase of 12% from $797 billion last year.

Revenues for the unit expanded 13% year over year and 3% from last quarter to nearly $1.8 billion.

In other news, UBS says it plans to acquire SNB StabFund’s equity in the fourth quarter, which should improve its BIS Basel III CET1 capital ratio by an additional 70 to 90 basis points.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Home Properties Offers Common Stock - Analyst Blog

Home Properties Inc. (HME) declared an underwritten public offering of 3.5 million common shares. Additionally, this real estate investment trust (REIT) expects the underwriters to be provided with a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 525,000 common shares.

The proceeds from the offering will be primarily utilized to fund acquisitions, and new development and redevelopment of apartment communities. Additionally, the proceeds would be used for general business purposes, which might comprise capital expenditures, payment of outstanding debt and other working capital requirements.

The sole book-running manager for the offering is BofA Merrill Lynch, a unit of Bank of America Corporation (BAC).

Though the intention of repaying debt is encouraging as it will lessen the company's interest expenses, the offering would result in share dilution.

Earlier, in 2011, Home Properties declared the sale of 5.25 million common shares through an underwritten public offering.

Some other REITs that recently announced public offering include Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD) and Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT). Gladstone declared an underwritten public offering of 1.1 million shares. The company also anticipates that the underwriters will be provided with a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 165,000 common shares to cover any over-allotments.

On the other hand, Chatham declared a public offering of 4.5 million common shares of beneficial interest, with a par value of one cent per share. Further, to cover any over-allotments, the company furnished a 30-day option to underwriters to buy up to an additional 675,000 shares.

Home Properties currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).


Saturday, August 17, 2013

Masco Subsidiary to Expand in N.Y. - Analyst Blog

American/Hungerford Building Products, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Masco Corporation (MAS) recently announced its plans to expand into Rochester, N.Y.

American/Hungerford is a part of Masco Contractor Services and offers various forms of insulation installations such as popular batt, gutter installation and gutter protection services and blow applications. The company serves both homebuilders and homeowners. Expansion in the New York area will further broaden the company's client base.

Recently, other Masco Contractor Services units, Williams Insulation and Red Lion Insulation also announced their expansion plans. Williams Insulation plans to expand into Lake Charles, La. while Red Lion Insulation plans to expand into Farmingdale, N.J. Both the companies offer various forms of insulation installations such as fiberglass batt, blown fiberglass, spray foam and cellulose.

Masco manufactures, sells and installs home improvement and building products.It is scheduled to report its second quarter 2013 earnings results on Jul 30, 2013. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter stands at 19 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 is 69 cents while that for fiscal 2014 is $1.02 per share.

Masco carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

We are encouraged by Masco's continued focus on product innovation and cost improvements. The company is benefiting from new home construction and repair and remodel activities. However, weak consumer spending on big ticket remodeling and a sluggish European economy remain headwinds.

Other stocks in the construction sector that are performing well and deserve a mention include PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), D R Horton, Inc. (DHI), and USG Corporation (USG). PulteGroup and DR Horton carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) whereas USG Corporation carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).


Friday, August 16, 2013

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014

Shares of biotech�Dynavax Technologies� (NASDAQ: DVAX  ) �plunged 30% this morning after the company provided an update on its experimental hepatitis B vaccine Heplisav. According to its press release, the company met with the Food & Drug Administration, and the regulatory agency has stated that Dynavax simply doesn't have enough data to confirm the safety of the vaccine.

This can't come as a total surprise to investors who have been tracking Dynavax over the last few months. Back in November, the FDA's advisory committee overwhelmingly voted in favor of the vaccine's efficacy. The major problem, however, was the lack of data to support the drug's safety in the broad age range that the company was seeking approval for (ages 18-70). The committee voted 8-5, with one member abstaining, that the company needed more safety data. A Complete Response Letter from the FDA quickly followed in February, and a lack of safety data was again cited as the main reason for the rejection.

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014: St. Jude Medical Inc.(STJ)

St. Jude Medical, Inc. develops, manufactures, and distributes cardiovascular and implantable neurostimulation medical devices worldwide. It operates in four segments: Cardiac Rhythm Management, Cardiovascular, Atrial Fibrillation, and Neuromodulation. The Cardiac Rhythm Management segment offers products for cardiac arrhythmias, or irregular heart beats. Its products include tachycardia implantable cardioverter defibrillator systems to provide therapy to patients suffering from lethal heart conditions, such as sudden cardiac arrest; cardiac resynchronization therapy devices to treat heart failure patients; pacemakers to help people whose hearts beat too slowly or who suffer from other cardiac arrhythmias; and leads, which connect devices to the heart and carry the electrical impulses to the heart and information from the heart to the device. The Cardiovascular segment offers mechanical and tissue replacement heart valves, as well as heart valve repair products. It also pr ovides disposable interventional devices, including vascular closure devices, compression assist devices, percutaneous catheter introducers, diagnostic guidewires, and temporary bipolar pacing catheters, as well as diagnostic coronary imaging technology. The Atrial Fibrillation segment offers a system of products for access, diagnosis, visualization, and ablation that assist physicians in diagnosing and treating various irregular heart rhythms used in the electrophysiology lab and cardiac surgery. It provides electrophysiology introducers and catheters, cardiac mapping, navigation and recording systems, and ablation systems. The Neuromodulation segment offers a range of neurostimulation systems, such as rechargeable implantable pulse generators, primary cell implantable pulse generators, and radio frequency powered systems. St. Jude Medical markets its products through a direct sales force and independent distributors. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rahemtulla]

    St. Jude Medical(STJ) makes devices for cardiac rhythm management and cardiac surgery.

    It reported fourth-quarter results last week. St. Jude's adjusted earnings of 75 cents, representing 17% year-over-year growth, exceeded analysts' consensus target by 1.8% and its nearly $1.4 billion of sales beat the consensus by 2.5%, but the stock dropped 1% upon announcement. The operating profit margin dropped from 29% to 25%. Still, return on equity, a key measure of efficiency for stock holders, at 21%, beat the peer group and S&P 500 averages.

    Jefferies had a positive reaction to the report, noting that St. Jude is poised to gain market share in 2011 on new products. St. Jude has attractive growth rates, having boosted sales and net income 11% and 18% annually, on average, over a three-year span. It is investing heavily in research and development to maintain its above-peer growth. Jefferies forecasts research spending rising from 12% of sales to nearly 13% in 2011. Although this investment spending will hinder margins in the near-term, it will also ensure continuation of St. Jude's robust product pipeline.

    Bullish Scenario: JPMorgan expects St. Jude to gain 27% to $52.

    Bearish Scenario: Citigroup predicts a drop of more than 7% to $38.

Hot Safest Stocks For 2014: Hot Topic Inc.(HOTT)

Hot Topic, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mall- and Web-based specialty retailer in the United States. The company operates Hot Topic and Torrid store concepts, as well as an e-space music discovery concept, ShockHound. Its Hot Topic stores sell music/pop culture-licensed merchandise, including tee shirts, hats, posters, stickers, patches, postcards, books, novelty accessories, CDs, and DVDs; and music/pop culture-influenced merchandise comprising women?s and men?s apparel and accessories, such as woven and knit tops, skirts, pants, shorts, jackets, shoes, costume jewelry, body jewelry, sunglasses, cosmetics, leather accessories, and gift items for young men and women primarily between the ages of 12 and 22. The company?s Torrid stores sells casual and dressy jeans and pants, fashion and novelty tops, sweaters, skirts, jackets, dresses, hosiery, shoes, intimate apparel, and fashion accessories for various lifestyles for plus-size females primarily betw een the ages of 15 and 29. As of July 30, 2011, it operated 636 Hot Topic stores in 50 states, Puerto Rico, and Canada; 145 Torrid stores; and Internet stores, hottopic.com and torrid.com. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in City of Industry, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Wyatt Research]

    The teen retailer reported its same-store sales rose 0.4 percent, with same-store sales at its Torrid chain for overweight teens rising 7 percent. Analysts were expecting a decline.

Top 10 Dividend Stocks To Watch For 2014: Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (FRFHF.PK)

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax) is a financial services holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and the associated investment management. The Company�� segments consist of Insurance, Reinsurance, Insurance and Reinsurance Other, Runoff, and Corporate and Other. On December 22, 2011, the Company completed the acquisition of 75% interests in Sporting Life Inc. On August 16, 2011, the Company acquired William Ashley China Corporation. On March 24, 2011, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Fairfax completed the acquisition of The Pacific Insurance Berhad. On February 9, 2011, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Fairfax completed the acquisition of First Mercury Financial Corporation. In October 2012, its RiverStone runoff subsidiary acquired all the outstanding shares of Brit Insurance Limited.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Volatility - Opportunity to the Investor, Risk to the Speculator

On January 19, Matt McLennan, portfolio manager of the First Eagle Global, Overseas, and U.S. Value Funds, in addition to being the successor of famed investor Jean-Marie Eveillard, appeared on WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack (here). When Consuelo asked him about volatility in equity markets, Mr. McLennan responded with something that's worth talking about:

"Within equities, the volatility of markets is enabling us margin of safety opportunities; ultimately, we build wealth by buying good businesses at good prices, and so paradoxically it's the volatility of equity markets in these uncertain times that's giving us wealth building opportunities... Among the stocks that we own in the portfolio, if we have windows of negative volatility, that obviously provides us with an opportunity to selectively commit more capital to businesses we know and like and understand…

Many of the companies are very resilient; they support strong embedded market positions (often with 40, 50, 60 percent market share), they have fortress like balance sheets with net cash, not net debt, they have management teams that are prudent and rational and incrementalist in their behavior (rather than expeditionary), and we understand them; and if you own businesses like that, then the volatility ought to be less distressing."

What McLennan said brings up three things that I think are important to recognize; the first is the focus on protecting against risk (meaning permanent loss of capital), while welcoming the opportunity that market volatility provides. Compare this to the average retail investor, who is generally concerned solely with the potential upside of a security, yet cringes at the chance to add to their holding of that same business at a cheaper price. Value investors who follow Ben Graham's teachings know that Mr. Market is your friend, not your enemy; for many investors, this relationship is flipped on its head due to illogical reasoning and the failure to see a stock for what it really is: ! partial ownership in a business and the cash it will generate in perpetuity.

Another thing that McLennan points out is that simply buying more of a company as it becomes cheaper isn't a move for success; the focus is on companies with dominant market positions, with an additional layer of security in the form of a strong balance sheet and a prudent management team. Ironically, these companies are likely to be those that are the least volatile, and increasingly attractive for those investors who clamor for stability; but sense these companies aren't high flyers with the potential to quadruple their earnings in the next couple of years, many retail investors pass on them and instead buy "lottery ticket" stocks (that over time tend to payout just as poorly as the real thing…).

The final point from McLennan's remarks that I found instructive was his mention of buying businesses that you understand. Some readers will look at something like this and think "but of course", yet find themselves considering an investment in the newest cloud computing or solar energy name next time CNBC touts its potential (again, the focus on reward instead of risk). Peter Lynch used to have an effective test for avoiding what he couldn't understand: Never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon.

All of these points are embodied in McLennan's final comment: Doing these things will help you act rationally during periods of distressing volatility. Emotion-based investing, which is generally value destroying, tends to spring up during periods of euphoria and distress; for the intelligent investor, investing in understandable businesses surrounded by a strong moat is key to maintaining a focus on the long term goal and avoiding the diversions along the way.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Hot Growth Companies To Watch For 2014

The following video is from Monday's Investor Beat, in which host Chris Hill and analysts Jason Moser and Jeff Fischer dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

Shares of Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) rise after the tech giant announces that Samsung will use Intel chips in the next-generation Galaxy tablet. Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) hits a five-year high after releasing encouraging results from a phase 1 study on the treatment of advanced melanoma. �Pandora (NYSE: P  ) hits a sour note on news that Apple has reached a music licensing deal with Warner Music Group. And General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) rises on strong sales numbers. In this installment of Investor Beat, our analysts talk about four stocks making moves.

When it comes to dominating markets, it doesn't get much better than Intel's position in the PC microprocessor arena. However, that market is maturing, and Intel finds itself in a precarious situation longer term if it doesn't find new avenues for growth. In this�premium research report on Intel, a Motley Fool analyst runs through all of the key topics investors�should understand�about�the chip giant. Click here now to learn more.

Hot Growth Companies To Watch For 2014: Health Management Associates Inc.(HMA)

Health Management Associates, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of general acute care hospitals and other health care facilities in non-urban communities in the United States. Its hospitals provide services, including general surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, and pediatric services. The company also offers outpatient services, such as one-day surgery, laboratory, x-ray, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. In addition, its hospitals provide specialty services in cardiology, neuro-surgery, oncology, radiation therapy, computer-assisted tomography scanning, magnetic resonance imaging, lithotripsy, and full-service obstetrics. As of December 31, 2011, the company operated 66 hospitals with a total of 10,330 licensed beds in non-urban communities in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and West Virginia. Health Management Associates was founded in 1977 and is based in Naples, Florida.

Hot Growth Companies To Watch For 2014: Heritage Oaks Bancorp(HEOP)

Heritage Oaks Bancorp operates as the holding company for Heritage Oaks Bank that provides commercial banking services to retail customers, and small to medium-sized businesses in California. The company offers various deposit products, including interest bearing and non-interest bearing demand deposits, checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, NOW accounts, and time deposits. Its loan products comprise commercial and industrial, small business administration, agricultural, credit card, and consumer loans; real estate secured loans for multi-family residential, residential 1 to 4 family, and farmland properties, as well as home equity line of credit and commercial real estate loans; and construction loans for single family residential, tract, multi-family, hospitality, and commercial properties. In addition, the company offers residential mortgage banking, installment note collection, bank-by-mail, night depository, safe deposit boxes, online banking, and other customary banking services, as well as issues cashier?s checks and money orders, and sells travelers checks. It operates 15 branches in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Paso Robles, California.

Top 5 Financial Companies For 2014: Topps Tiles(TPT.L)

Topps Tiles Plc engages in the retail and wholesale distribution of ceramic tiles, wood flooring, and related products in the United Kingdom and Holland. The company offers various types of tiles, including bathroom wall and floor, kitchen wall and floor, ceramic, porcelain, travertine, and mosaic tiles, as well as granite, slate, marble, limestone, glass, and clearance tiles. It also offers tiling tools, which include rubi tile cutters, tile cutters, tile cutter accessories, grouting tools, tiling trowels, tile spacers, silicone sealants, adhesive mixers, safety glasses and gloves, and knee pads. In addition, Topps Tiles Plc offers grouts and adhesives; and laminate, engineered wood, and hardwood flooring. Further, the company offers bathroom suites and accessories, such as basins, vanity suites, and taps; heated towel rails and valves; bathroom accessories; wet rooms; baths and panels; furniture and accessories; shower enclosures; toilets and basins; cloakrooms and ensui tes; taps and wastes; and showers. It operates under the brand names of Topps Tiles and Tile Clearing House. The company operates 312 retail stores in the United Kingdom. Topps Tiles Plc was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Enderby, the United Kingdom.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Parker Hannifin Skids, But Conditions May Be Bottoming

It's not too much of a stretch to say that Parker Hannifin (NYSE:PH) makes industry move. Although the company doesn't give much in the way of end-market breakouts, hydraulics, seals, valves, and connectors are vital to a host of markets ranging from vehicles to energy to basic machinery, and Parker counts customers as diverse as Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) in its roster.

Orders haven't been very good for a while now, and that has basically mirrored the malaise in the wider industrial market. Although Parker's fiscal fourth quarter performance was not very strong (and guidance likely disappointed many investors), flat orders and management's commentary about signs that the economy is bottoming could make this a stock to watch again.

Closing A Tough Year On A Whimper
Those investors who follow heavy/commercial vehicle manufacturers like Caterpillar or Terex (NYSE:TEX) already know how challenging these past few quarters have been, and likewise for companies like Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) with more "general industrial" exposure. Even so, this wasn't a good performance for Parker Hannifin.

Revenue was down 2% on an organic basis, with Climate / Industrial Controls down 16%, Industrial North America down 6%, and Industrial International down almost 1%. Aerospace was the lone bright spot, as revenue improved almost 10%.

While revenue was close to the sell-side target, margins came in quite weak. Gross margin declined by a point, while segment profits declined 6% (an 8% miss relative to the sell-side). Although earnings in the Climate/Controls business were flat (leading to about two points of margin improvement), Industrial North America and International were down 10% and 5%, respectively, and Aerospace was barely up. Accordingly, these three businesses saw unit margins down around one point to 130bp.

I can't say that management's explanation helped much. I can appreciate the impact of lower volumes in North America and expenses tied to acquisitions, forex, and inventory reductions, but the disappointment relative to the revenue performance is still surprising.

SEE: Target Prices: The Key To Sound Investing

How Much Better Is Better?
Not surprisingly, I've seen some bullish sell-side analysts already coming to Parker's defense, citing the more or less flat order performance as a "meaningful improvement" from the declines of recent quarters. Still, I think it's worth noting that management's guidance for revenue growth next year seems to top out at around 4%, and that's hardly "full-blown recovery". Likewise, a reduction in guidance of about 9% on a like-for-like basis is not what you expect to see if the economy is bottoming and about to turn.

Still, I can appreciate management's caution. Orders in the industrial business were quite a bit better (down 5% in North America, up 3% International) than the 12% decline seen in Eaton's (NYSE:ETN) hydraulics bookings, but with the recovery in China's construction market very uncertain and Caterpillar's management seemingly taking a "you'll know when we know" tone of uncertainty, there's a lot of doubt out there. All told, while I do think Parker will see better demand in commercial aerospace and improvements in markets like industrial automation, off-highway vehicle demand and conditions in the energy markets are still very uncertain at this point.

The Bottom Line
If you believe that off-highway vehicle demand will improve, not to mention general industrial/machinery demand, Parker Hannifin could be back to a point where the shares are interesting again. I'm only looking for revenue growth of about 4% over the long term against 7% historical growth (of which, only about one-third has been organic), and I am looking for ongoing margin and cash conversion improvements to generate free cash flow growth in the mid-to-high single digits.

With that, I'm thinking fair value for Parker Hannifin is in the neighborhood of $110, even after this disappointing guidance. Likewise, EV/EBITDA and ROE/PBV suggest further upside from here. Although I think Parker's stock could be vulnerable to further pessimism regarding the global industrial economy, the stock is at the very least undervalued in a market where so few industrial stocks are.

Disclosure – At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.


Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Here's What This "Market-Destroying" Investor Is Buying

Every quarter, many money managers have to disclose what they've bought and sold, via "13F" filings. Their latest moves can shine a bright light on smart stock picks.

Today, let's look at Joel Greenblatt's Gotham Asset Management. It's of great interest to many investors because Greenblatt is the author of the well-regarded and best-selling The Little Book That Beats the Market and because his system of seeking out companies with high returns on capital and hefty earnings yields. His "Magic Formula" has many fans. As my colleague Morgan Housel has noted, "The simple formula absolutely destroys market averages over time. Greenblatt backs this up with considerable statistical evidence."

The company's reportable stock portfolio totaled $2.0 billion in value as of March 31, 2013.

Interesting developments
So what does Gotham's latest quarterly 13F filing tell us? Here are a few interesting details:

The biggest new holdings are Seagate Technology and Warner Chilcott. Other new holdings of interest include Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB  ) and Windstream (NASDAQ: WIN  ) . Tellabs offers a satisfying dividend yield of 3.7%, but the networking equipment maker has been facing some headwinds, such as the death of its CEO and the recent departure of its CFO. Its performance has been spotty, besting estimates in its fourth quarter but disappointing them in the recent first quarter.

Rural telecom company Windstream has an even more fetching dividend yield, north of 11%! But while it's shifting its focus more toward broadband service, it remains significantly a landline company, and its last quarter featured declining revenue. It did post a profit, but not one that would support its current dividend level. Its investments in new revenue streams may ultimately pay off, though.

Among holdings in which Gotham Asset Management increased its stake was Atmel (NASDAQ: ATML  ) , which makes touchscreen controllers. The stock recently hit a 52-week high, but it has been posting shrinking revenue and earnings lately. The company is plumping up its profit margins by cutting costs, has a growing backlog, and expects improving business conditions. Some see the stock as undervalued, with its forward P/E near 14.

Gotham Asset Management reduced its stake in lots of companies, including Frontier Communications (NASDAQ: FTR  ) . Frontier, like Windstream, is a high-yielding rural telecom specialist. It's weighed down with considerable debt, and though it is shifting its business focus, favoring business customers now, it's been posting declining revenue lately. Its credit rating took a hit in recent months as well.

Finally, Gotham's biggest closed positions included Wells Fargo warrants and Georgia Gulf. Other closed positions of interest include Nuance Communications (NASDAQ: NUAN  ) , which develops speech-recognition software. The stock sank late last month, after posting disappointing earnings. Nuance is threatened by weak demand, shrinking margins, and intensifying competition. Carl Icahn has taken a big stake in the company, but some doubt the wisdom of that. With its seemingly low valuation, some see it as a buyout candidate.

We should never blindly copy any investor's moves, no matter how talented the investor. But it can be useful to keep an eye on what smart folks are doing. 13-F forms can be great places to find intriguing candidates for our portfolios.

There's more to know and consider about Frontier Communications. While its juicy dividend is tempting, every Frontier investor has to understand that it's not a sure thing. A huge acquisition has transformed the company forever. Will the move bear fruit or are investors destined for another disappointing dividend cut? In this premium research report on Frontier Communications, we walk you through all of the key opportunities and threats facing the company.

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More Expert Advice from The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

An Economics 101 Lesson From Corporate America

Supply. Demand.

Any basic economics class will start with these two words on the blackboard. They are the yin and yang of the market. Whenever one of these two items falls out of balance, it can take a major toll on companies that do business in that space. In recent years, certain sectors have been ravaged by an imbalance in supply and demand. Let's look at these sectors and see what will be needed to get back.

Metals: I sense a great disturbance in the (supply) force
Predicting global demand for metals can almost be answered with one question: How much will China and India need? Demand outside these countries is much more steady and predictable, but the growth in China and India has the ability to swing global supplies more so than anywhere else in the world. 

Back in 2011, aluminum prices hit their post financial-collapse peak, and there was a mad dash to increase supply to keep pace with Chinese demand. Since then, Chinese demand has waned and stockpiles for both aluminum and iron ore have grown, while spot prices for both materials dropped by at least 23%.

Iron Ore Spot Price (Any Origin) Chart

Iron Ore Spot Price (Any Origin) data by YCharts

Of course, when a company deals exclusively with these kinds of materials, a major slump in demand and prices will deal a major blow to share prices. Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) , U.S. Steel (NYSE: X  ) , and Cliffs Natural Resoures (NYSE: CLF  ) , all of which deal exclusively with either aluminum- or steel-related materials, have seen their share prices drop since the metal-price peak back in 2011.

AA Chart

AA data by YCharts

Today, aluminum, iron ore, and metalurgical coal companies have started to slow down production to let demand catch up with excess stockpiles of these materials. Alcoa has idled almost 500,000 tons of aluminum smelting capacity, and Cliffs Natural Resources shut down two of its facilities in Michigan and Minnesota late last year. Both of these moves are part of a larger concentrated effort by several metal companies to bring prices back up.

In a way, these moves are starting to pay off. Alcoa recently reported better-than-expected earnings this past quarter, and although U.S. Steel still saw a sizable loss this past quarter, it was just 33% of the loss the company suffered on a year-over-year basis for the period. The outlook for the rest of 2013 and into 2014 looks much stronger, as stockpiles for these basic metals are rather low, Chinese demand is growing again, and prices for these materials are starting to inch their way back up. 

Solar panels
Commodities such as metals and other basic materials have always made for a rather cyclical industry, always reacting to the recent moves in demand. It's less rare for a manufactured product such as solar panels to experience an oversupply as it has recently, but moves by certain companies have brought on that very problem.

Like the metals market, the market for solar panels has been dominated by China, but in a completely different way. Rather than being the largest demand source, it's been the largest supply source of cheap solar panels around the world. Over the past several years, the Chinese government heavily subsidized major solar-panel manufacturers such as Trina Solar, Yingli Green Energy, and the recently bankrupt Suntech Power Holdings. China was thus able to capture 80% of the worlds solar panel market by being a low-cost provider. 

The problem with that approach is that solar-panel companies' manufacturing cpacity far outpaced worldwide demand. Global manufacturing capacity for solar panels stands at about 60 gigawatts per year. In 2012, though, demand for solar power was only about 35 gigawatts, according to Dr. Harry A. Atwater, director of the Resnick Sustainability Institute at the California Institute of Technology. With so much extra capacity on the market, almost every company struggled to sell panels at a profit. First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR  ) , which developed a cost-effective panel that didn't use silicon, saw its price advantage erode, and with it much of the company's share price over the past couple of years. 

Now it appears that the solar-panel industry is in the middle of a correction. No longer propped up by Chinese government subsidies and facing U.S. and European import tariffs, Chinese solar companies have been folding rapidly, most recently highlighted by the Suntech bankruptcy. According to a GTM Research report, 88 solar companies will shut down factories or completely close up shop within the next three years, 54 of those being Chinese companies.  

Some companies are starting to show life as the stronger companies emerge from this massive correction. Both First Solar and SunPower are anticipating higher profits throughout 2013 and beyond. The next couple of years will be the proving ground for these solar companies as the wheat separates itself from the chaff. 

What a Fool believes
Markets are like nature, always in flux and striving for equilibrium. Just as when too many predators exist in a habitat with too few prey, supply levels will dwindle until sufficient demand catches up. As complex as nature and the global markets may be, they will always eventually revert back to this basic principle.

Long-term investors need to understand this equilibrium. In sectors such as commodities, ups and downs are expected to happen. Rather than trying to time the market, though, have the temperament to weather these rougher patches, and your portfolio will thank you in the long run.

Materials industries are traditionally known for their high barriers to entry, and the aluminum industry is no exception. Controlling about 15% of global production in this highly consolidated industry, Alcoa is in prime position to take advantage of growth that some expect will lead to total industry revenue approaching $160 billion by 2017. Based on this prospect and several other company-specific factors, Alcoa is certainly worth a closer look. For a Foolish investment perspective on this global giant, simply click here now to get started.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Annaly Capital Management: Bullish or Bearish?

The Federal Reserve's commitment to its QE programs has thrust mREITs into the spotlight as it continues to buy mortgage-backed securities at a record pace. Investors are beginning to worry how the Fed will wind down the program and how that will impact the mREITs.

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY  ) is the largest mREIT, and its management team has been carefully navigating the current environment. In this video, Motley Fool financial analysts David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer debate the two sides of the story.

There's no question Annaly Capital's double-digit dividend is eye-catching. But can investors count on that payout sticking around? With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at historically low levels, Annaly has had to scramble to defend its bottom line. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on Annaly, senior analysts Ilan Moscovitz and Matt Koppenheffer uncover the key challenges the company faces and divulge three reasons investors may consider buying it. Simply click here now to claim your copy today!

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The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now

Medical device maker�Becton, Dickinson� (NYSE: BDX  ) gave investors a shot in the arm today reporting strong financial results for its second fiscal quarter and raising its guidance for the full year.

Top-line numbers of $2 billion came in just ahead of Capital IQ analyst consensus views of �$1.99 billion while profits of $275.6 million, or $1.39 per share, beat Wall Street's view by $0.04 per share, a 3% surprise to the upside.

Sales in the U.S. were relatively flat in the quarter, coming in 0.3% higher year over year, while international revenues jumped more than 6% from the prior period (but by almost 7% on a constant currency basis) primarily as a result of emerging market growth. In both its medical and diagnostic segments, BD enjoyed solid 4% growth while its biosciences division saw revenues rise by barely more than half a percent.�

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Taylor Capital Group Inc.(TAYC)

Taylor Capital Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Cole Taylor Bank that provides a range of commercial banking products and services primarily to closely-held commercial customers and their owner operators in the Chicago area. It offers various deposit products, including checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as time deposits, and other deposit and credit services to commercial clients and community-based customers, including individuals and small local businesses. The company?s commercial lending activities primarily consist of providing loans for working capital and business expansion or acquisition; owner-occupied commercial real estate financing; revolving lines of credit; and stand-by and commercial letters of credit. It also originates and sells mortgage loans. In addition, the company provides treasury cash management services, including repurchase agreements, Internet balance reporting, remote deposit capture, positive pay, automa ted clearing house products, imaged lock-box processing, controlled disbursement, and account reconciliation services to commercial clients; and investment management and brokerage services. Further, it offers asset-based financing, including revolving lines of credit supported by receivables and inventory; and term loans supported by equipment and real estate. The company?s target commercial lending customers include businesses engaged in various industries, such as manufacturing, wholesale and retail distribution, transportation, construction contracting, and professional services. It operates through nine banking centers in the Chicago area. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: National Health Investors Inc. (NHI)

National Health Investors, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), invests in health care properties, primarily in the long-term care industry in the United States. As of December 31, 2008, it had investments in real estate assets and mortgage notes receivable investments in 123 health care facilities consisting of 83 long-term care facilities, 1 acute care hospital, 4 medical office buildings, 14 assisted living facilities, 4 retirement centers, and 17 residential projects for the developmentally disabled in 17 states. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. National Health Investors, Inc. was founded in 1991 and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.

Top 10 Oil Companies To Buy Right Now: SYSWIN Inc.(SYSW)

Syswin Inc. provides real estate service in the People's Republic of China. It offers real estate sales agency services to property developers relating to new residential properties; and real estate consultancy services, including project consultancy services to developer clients, as well as primary land development consultancy and agency services to primary land developers. It operates in 17 cities in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Mission Vly Bcp Ca(MVLY.OB)

Mission Valley Bancorp operates as the holding company for Mission Valley Bank that provides a range of banking services to individual and corporate customers in the United States. The company?s deposit products include checking accounts, certificates of deposits, health savings accounts, individual retirement accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits. Its loan portfolio comprises personal, automobile, home equity, commercial real estate, equipment, small business administration, and term loans. The company also offers apartment financing, auto and truck financing, accounts receivable financing, leasing, letters of credit, corporate credit cards, and lines of credit. In addition, it provides online banking, account reconciliation, check image, collection, deposit courier, electronic tax payment, image statement, merchant bankcard, night drop, notary, payroll, safe deposit box, and zero balance accounting services, as well as cashier?s checks, t ravelers checks, credit cards, and debit and ATM cards. Further, the company offers financial planning and investment services in the areas of investments, estate plans, retirement plans, and insurance. It operates three branches in Sun Valley, Valencia, and the Centre Pointe area of Santa Clarita, California. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Sun Valley, California.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Piper Jaffray Companies(PJC)

Piper Jaffray Companies provides investment banking, institutional brokerage, asset management, and related financial services to corporations, private equity groups, public entities, non-profit entities, and institutional investors in the United States, Asia, and Europe. The company raises capital through equity financings; provides advisory services, primarily relating to mergers and acquisitions for its corporate clients; underwrites debt issuances; and offers financial advisory and interest rate risk management services. Its public finance investment banking capabilities focus on state and local governments, as well as healthcare, higher education, housing, hospitality, transportation, and commercial real estate industries, as well as operates in business and financial services, clean technology and renewables, consumer, and industrial growth, as well as media, telecommunications, and technology industries. The company also offers equity and fixed income advisory and t rade execution services for institutional investors, and government and non-profit entities; and is involved in proprietary trading, as well as has equity sales and trading relationships with institutional investors. In addition, it provides asset management services to separately managed accounts, private funds or partnerships, and open-end and closed-end registered investment companies or funds; and offers an array of investment products comprising small and mid-cap value equity, and master limited partnerships focused on the energy industry, as well as fixed income. Further, the company engages in merchant banking activities, which comprises proprietary debt or equity investments in late stage private companies, and investments in private equity and venture capital funds, as well as other firm investments and forfeiture of stock-based compensation. Piper Jaffray Companies was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: FirstMerit Corporation(FMER)

FirstMerit Corporation operates as the bank holding company for FirstMerit Bank, N.A. that provides a range of banking, fiduciary, financial, insurance, and investment services to corporate, institutional, and individual customers in northern and central Ohio, and western Pennsylvania. The company?s commercial business offers commercial term loans, revolving credit arrangements, asset-based lending, leasing, commercial mortgages, real estate construction lending, letters of credit, cash management services, and other depository products. Its retail business provides various financial products and services, including consumer direct and indirect installment loans, debit and credit cards, debit gift cards, residential mortgage loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, fixed and variable annuities, and ATM network services, as well as deposit products comprising checking, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company?s wealth business provides a sset management, private banking, financial planning, estate settlement and administration, and credit and deposit products and services. FirstMerit Corporation also offers trust and investment services, including personal trust and planning, and investment management; retirement plan services; retail mutual funds, other securities, variable and fixed annuities, personal disability and life insurance products, and brokerage services; and private banking services, including credit, deposit, and asset management solutions. As of December 31, 2009, it operated a network of 160 full service banking offices and 182 ATMs. The company was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Akron, Ohio.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Radian Group Inc.(RDN)

Radian Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a credit enhancement company in the United States. The company offers credit-related insurance coverage, primarily through private mortgage insurance, and risk management services to mortgage lending institutions. Its private mortgage insurance protects the holders of the company?s insurance from default-related losses on residential mortgage loans made generally to home buyers, as well as facilitates the sale of these mortgage loans in the secondary mortgage market. The company primarily serves mortgage originators, such as mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and community banks. Radian Group Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Retail Opportunity Investments Corp.(ROIC)

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the acquisition, ownership, and management of necessity-based community and neighborhood shopping centers in the eastern and western regions of the United States. As of December 31, 2011, its portfolio consisted of 30 owned retail properties totaling approximately 3.2 million square feet of gross leasable area. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT, for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The company is based in White Plains, New York.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Workspace Group(WKP.L)

Workspace Group PLC, a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in property investment in the form of letting of business accommodation to small and medium sized enterprises in London and the South East of England. It offers space for serviced offices, offices, studios, workshops, and light industrial units. The company owns 100 estates, comprising approximately 5.77 million square feet, and provides accommodation for 4,000 small businesses in London and the South East. It has a joint venture with Workspace Glebe Limited, which engages in property investment. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to income tax, if it distributes at least 90 % of its REIT taxable income to its share holders. Workspace Group PLC, formerly known as London Industrial PLC, was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Top 10 Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Ohio Valley Banc Corp.(OVBC)

Ohio Valley Banc Corp. operates as the holding company for The Ohio Valley Bank Company that provides commercial and consumer banking products and services in central and southeastern Ohio and western West Virginia. It accepts various deposit products that include checking, savings, time, and money market accounts; individual retirement accounts; and demand deposits, NOW accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company?s loan portfolio comprises residential real estate loans that include one- to four-family residential mortgages; commercial loans secured by equipment, inventory, stock, commercial real estate, and rental property; consumer loans secured by automobiles, mobile homes, recreational vehicles, and other personal property; personal loans; and floor plan and student loans. It also provides safe deposit boxes, wire transfers, credit card services, automated telephone banking systems, and Internet banking services; financial management online services, such as ca sh management and news updates related to repossession auctions, current rates, and general bank news; property and casualty insurance coverage services; and seasonal tax refund loan services. The company has 15 offices located in Ohio and West Virginia. The company was founded in 1872 and is based in Gallipolis, Ohio.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Why Sinclair Broadcast Shares Sank

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of television broadcasting company Sinclair Broadcast Group (NASDAQ: SBGI  ) sank as low as 11% today after announcing disappointing quarterly results and a public offering of common stock.  

So what: Sinclair's first-quarter profit of $17 million managed to beat estimates, but a miss on the top line -- revenue of $282.62 million versus the consensus of $290.7 million -- suggests that growth is slowing. Additionally, the company's commencement of a 14 million-share common stock offering might be raising concerns among investors over potential dilution.  

Now what: Management now sees second-quarter net broadcast revenues from continuing operations, before barter, of $277.0 million to $279.3 million, representing a jump of 27.3% to 28.4% from the year-ago period. "The first-quarter momentum is continuing into the second quarter, especially in the automotive category, which we expect to be up by mid- to high single digit percents on a same station basis," said CFO David Amy. "The acquisitions which closed at the end of 2012 have transitioned smoothly into the organization and our culture, and we are on track with the launching of our small market television operation." With the stock still up more than 150% over the past year, however, I'd wait for even more of a pullback before buying into that bullishness. 

Interested in more info Sinclair? Add it to your watchlist.

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Saturday, August 3, 2013

Best Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, natural gas and oil producer Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Devon and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Devon facts

Headquarters (founded)

Oklahoma City (1971)

Market Cap

$23.8 billion

Industry

Best Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Lounor Exploration Inc (LO.V)

Lounor Exploration Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, and exploration of mining properties in Canada. It primarily explores for gold, copper, platinum, palladium, and nickel ores. The company holds an option to acquire a 100% interest in the Harker-Hurd project for 21 leased claims covering an area of 320 hectares; and a 50% interest in the Tiger property for 24 claims covering an area of 300 hectares located in Ontario. It also holds 100% interests in the Trecesson property for a block of 7 claims situated in the Trecesson township; Carqueville property comprising 26 claims covering an area of 1040 hectares; and Zinc (Bernieres) property consisting of 16 mining units located in the Bernieres township in Quebec. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Rouyn-Noranda, Canada.

Best Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: First Resources Limited (EB5.SI)

First Resources Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the cultivation and maintenance of oil palm plantations primarily in Singapore and Indonesia. It is also involved in the harvesting and milling the fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil and palm kernel products, as well as in oil palm seed breeding and rubber plantation activities. In addition, the company markets and sells processed palm based products. It manages 130,000 hectares of oil palms plantations; and operates 9 palm oil mills in Indonesia. Further, the company owns and manages aircrafts. First Resources Limited was founded in 1992 and is based in Singapore.

Top 5 Clean Energy Stocks To Watch Right Now: PC-Tel Inc.(PCTI)

PCTEL, Inc. provides propagation and optimization solutions for the wireless industry. It designs and develops software-based radios (scanning receivers) for wireless network optimization; and develops and distributes antenna solutions. The company?s scanning receivers, receiver-based products, and interference management solutions are used to measure, monitor, and optimize cellular networks. It offers various antenna products for worldwide interoperability for microwave access antennas, land mobile radio antennas, and precision global positioning systems antennas that serve applications in telemetry, radio frequency identification, WiFi, fleet management, and mesh networks. The company?s antenna solutions address public safety, military, and government applications; supervisory control and data acquisition, health care, energy, smart grid, and agricultural applications; and indoor wireless, wireless backhaul, and cellular applications. PCTEL, Inc. supplies its products to public and private carriers, wireless infrastructure providers, wireless equipment distributors, value added resellers, and original equipment manufacturers through distributors and direct sales force. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bloomingdale, Illinois.

Thursday, August 1, 2013

Quickel's PEG Value Picks

Our latest recommendations share two primary characteristics: rapid earnings growth potential and attractive price valuations, explains Stephen Quickel of US Investment Report.

So far, the results for the second quarter earnings season look very good. Not super, but very good. More than 60% of the S&P 500 stocks reporting had bested the quarterly earnings expectations of analysts.

Many also beat revenue forecasts and upped their guidance to analysts for the near future. This bullish earnings picture, coming atop steadily improving economic news, augurs well for gains in stock prices to resume.

On average, our recommended stocks are expected to grow earnings per share 19.7% a year for the next three-to-five years.

They trade at an average forward P/E of just 14.8 times fiscal 2014 earnings, about the same as the far slower growing S&P 500. Their collective price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio is a very attractive 0.77.

In the healthcare sector, we are restoring two previously successful picks to our recommended list: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) and pharmacy benefits leader Express Scripts (ESRX).

ALXN is an up-and-coming biotech company offering prospects of 26% a year profit growth in treatments for patients with severe and hard-to-treat illnesses. Revenues are growing rapidly.

Express Scripts, with revenues of $100 billion, is a world-class juggernaut whose large size, and somewhat moderate growth-rate, make it best-suited for conservative portfolios.

We are also adding two previously successful technology picks: Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a supplier of analog and mixed signal semiconductors, and OSI Systems (OSIS), a specialist in mission-critical electronic systems and components.

OSIS is expected to grow somewhat faster, while SWKS trades at more attractive P/E and PEG ratios.

In the financial sectors, we are intrigued by the 25% to 27% a year earnings growth expectations for Ocwen Financial Corp. (OCN).

Ocwen, located in Atlanta, is a holding company specializing mainly in originating and servicing mortgage loans. Though not widely known, both stocks trade at rock-bottom PEG ratios.

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