Tuesday, September 30, 2014

3 Reasons United Continental Holdings Inc's Stock Could Rise

There are three basic things investors in any stock want to see: more revenue, lower costs, and more cash returned to shareholders. In the case of United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL  ) , shareholders are spoiled with all three. Each of these figures has been going in the right direction recently, and if the company's forecasts are accurate, all three will improve and could lead to an even higher share price.

Mile-high revenue
For the second quarter, United Continental reported a revenue increase of 3.3% to $10.3 billion. Passenger revenue leaped 3.6% to $9.0 million. Per passenger ancillary revenue jumped 7.9% to $21. United's Chief Revenue Officer Jim Compton stated, "We are beginning to see the benefits of the changes we're implementing to our network and revenue management processes. We have more work to do, however, and will continue to make the appropriate adjustments to accelerate our revenue growth."

One of the key ways United is working to expand revenue is from installing lighter slimline seats. That's a fancy way of saying squeezing more bodies into the same size flying tube. You thought fights are already tight enough? They're in the process of getting tighter, but just adding a few extra passengers into a flight means more revenue with not much additional cost. At the same time, United plans to expand ancillary revenue even further with more service options.

Two billion reasons wrapped into one
Cost savings can really make a huge difference to the bottom line. All things being equal, every $1 a company can eliminate in cost is $1 of pre-tax profit. United has implemented a program called "Project Quality." This is an all-hands-on-deck across all employees goal of eliminating $2 billion in annual costs by the year 2017.


Source:  United Continental Holdings

United expects to save half a billion this year, so it still has a ways to go. The target cuts sought are $1 billion in fuel through various means, $100 million in maintenance, $500 million in productivity, $100 million in distribution, $150 million in sourcing, and $150 million in other ways. Better fuel efficient planes while ditching the gas guzzlers is the first step in this process.

Analysts certainly seem to be believers. For example for the fiscal year ending December 2015, they expect on average a 30% increase in EPS on only a 3.7% increase in revenue. All those cost savings are expected to blow up the bottom line in a fashion that shows it is much more lucrative than simply selling more tickets. If the plans and hopes turn to reality, the stock could appreciate accordingly.

Shareholders have a rewards program of their own
United announced in July a $1 billion buyback program to be completed in three years. $1 billion is a perfectly even round number so dare I say the internal plans may be more aggressive with an earlier completion and a new one to be announced sooner? In any event, it's a lot of cash.

Consider that the market cap of United is just under $18 billion at the time of this writing. That's nearly a 6% return on this initiative alone. Likewise, unless the share price shoots up first, it will retire nearly 6% of the shares outstanding, giving an automatic boost to all EPS figures.

Personally I like buybacks because of the message of confidence they tend to convey from management which brings a potentially higher P/E multiple as a company performs. CEO Jeffrey Smiesk was more direct about this message in the earnings conference call. He stated, "[The buyback announcement is] perhaps the clearest demonstration of our confidence and our ability to achieve the goals of [our] long-term plan." It sounds like he doesn't expect UAL's results disappoint the Street.

Do you know this energy tax "loophole"?
You already know record oil and natural gas production is changing the lives of millions of Americans. But what you probably haven't heard is that the IRS is encouraging investors to support our growing energy renaissance, offering you a tax loophole to invest in some of America's greatest energy companies. Take advantage of this profitable opportunity by grabbing your brand-new special report, "The IRS Is Daring You to Make This Investment Now!," and you'll learn about the simple strategy to take advantage of a little-known IRS rule. Don't miss out on advice that could help you cut taxes for decades to come. Click here to learn more.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Cummins: On Track to Deliver More Upside for Investors

Cummins (CMI), posted impressive results for the second quarter that ended June 29, 2014, driven by enhanced demand in the North American on-highway market for heavy and medium duty truck and bus. The shipment for the heavy-duty truck increased roughly 13% to 23,000 units and medium duty truck accelerated nearly 28% to 20,000 units as compared to the same quarter last year. Likewise, Cummins's component business grew a record high to 15% during the second quarter, leading its EBIT to inflate by 230 basis points to 14.5% on the back of higher volumes, lower warranty cost, and stronger cost control actions.

Performance and outlook

The maker of engines reported revenue of $4.84 billion during the second quarter, an increase of about 7% as compared to $4.53 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Also, the strong performance of the existing business powered by positive impact of the recent acquisition of distributors in North America guided its net income for the quarter increase nearly 8% to $446 million or earnings of $2.43 per share as against $414 million or earnings of $2.20 per share in the corresponding period last year. The Wall Street analysts were expecting earnings of $2.38 on the revenue of $4.83 billion.

In addition, Cummins has also raised its full year outlook. The company now expects full year revenue to grow by 8% to 11% in the fiscal year ending December 31, 2014, which is higher than its prior guidelines of 6% to 10% growth on sales. Also, its revenue for the component business is forecasted to increase by 12% to 17% this calendar year, which is approximately up by 2% at the midpoint, while EBIT is expected to expand between 13% and 14%, up about 25 basis points from the prior outlook.

More improvements ahead

The maker of engine looks to additionally deliver incremental revenue of $500 million from the potential acquisition it has made this year. Cummins remains on the track with its North American acquisition plan to execute 7 large acquisitions this year. It has already made 3 acquisitions so far this year and appears solid to accomplish the remaining by the year end. Additionally, the company expects its acquisition business to strengthen its earnings by about $0.30 per share, which is higher than its formerly declared guidance of $0.20 to $0.25 per share.

Meanwhile, Cummins expects its heavy-duty truck market share to increase by 15% this year, which is slightly up from the previous guidance of 12%. The company has total market share of 38% so far, while its medium duty truck market remains solid with enhanced market share of 73% this year so far. The company is expecting its medium truck market size to get improved by 3% by the end of the year, which is approximately 10% higher than the previous year 2013.

New products

Cummins is pleased with the performance of its existing and new products across the world due to effective control measures executed that led the product failure rate to remain at the very low level for the company. However, Cummins has realized higher demand for the NS4 products worldwide from the end user buyers therefore the company is engaged in transitioning its product from NS3 to NS4 standard that usually carry a higher warranty costs due to increasing complication on its new engine which is now integrated with the addition of OnBoard Diagnostics that could slightly pressurized its margins this year.

Nevertheless, Cummins is now producing more of the National Standard 4 products based on the emission regulation and standard suggested by the from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology or MIIT. Further, the company expects around 50% to 60% of the total production for heavy and medium-duty truck in the second half of the year will be compliant with the NS4 products that will certainly keep them ahead from its peers such as Caterpillar (CAT) and Navistar International Corporation (NAV).

On the other hand, Cummins is witnessing strong demand for its light-duty engines in China. Cummins is operating its light-duty engine operation with the partnership of Foton and accelerating the proportion for its truck that are integrated with the 2.8 and 3.8 litters engine that are produced at its joint venture facility. Cummins is really excited with the potential growth in the Chinese market for light-duty vehicles that are further being supported by the emission regulation by the government should drive growth for its light-duty vehicles in the region.

The company has recently launched ISG heavy-duty engine in the country that should assist the company in complementing the growth for the light-duty market in the region. Also, the light-duty shipment during the quarter increased approximately 69% year-on-year basis in the region. Cummins is certainly in a right track to get the benefit of improving demand for construction market in china as investment in infrastructure has reenergized of late.

Conclusion

Cummins is currently trading with the trailing P/E of 17.22 and forward P/E of 12.88 that suggest reasonable growth for the stock in the future. Also, it's PEG ratio stands at 1.12 for the next five years, indicating potential growth for the company in coming years. Moreover, Cummins looks strong on the performance matrix as its profit and operating profit yields for the trailing twelve months are 8.68% and 10.26% respectively.

Cummins ROE also looks durable with the yield of 21.84% for the trailing twelve months. It has total cash of 2.38 billion and operating cash flow of 1.83 billion, quite enough to cover its total outstanding debt of 1.69 billion which is quite mix by most measures. In addition, the analysts have estimated CAGR of 14.07%, higher than average industry CAGR of 13.68% for the next five years. Hence, investors can certainly pick the stock as it has potential growth in the coming years.

Currently 0.00/5

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Jack Ma was happy making $20 a month

jack ma NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Jack Ma, the newly-minted richest man in China, was happy making just $20 a month.

The founder of China's online retail giant Alibaba (BABA, Tech30) spoke at a panel discussion at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York. Moderated by Chelsea Clinton, the discussion touched upon a wide range of topics, from Ma's relationship with money, his vision for Alibaba and charity.

Wearing a dark Mandarin collar jacket, the outspoken Ma did not hold back. Here are parts of the conversation, edited for clarity.

More money more "headaches"?

The former English teacher said he was paid $20 a month when he first graduated from college. Those were "fantastic days" he said, sounding nostalgic.

He said anyone with $1 million is "a lucky person." But if you have $10 million, "you've got troubles," since you need to worry about how to invest and other "headaches."

But when you have $1 billion is when you have a responsibility to the people who trust you to spend it wisely. At that level, "people believe you can spend the money better than others."

How to spend $25 billion

Ma's company Alibaba debuted last week in the U.S. stock market and shattered all records by raising about $25 billion.

Ma thanked America for helping Alibaba "raise a little money so we can do more things."

There are roughly 7 billion people in the world, but only half a billion shop on the Internet, which means there's a huge opportunity, he said.

Seated between the finance minister of Nigeria and the CEO of General Motors (GM), Ma said Alibaba wants to connect buyers and sellers from Nigeria to the Philippines to China.

The importance of foresight

Ma stressed how important it was to think ahead.

"We got successful today -- not because we did a great job today. We had a dream 15 years ago" that the internet could help small businesses.

He said though some people have linked Alibaba's success to "secret government support," it was actually more a result of hard work and dedication.

"We don't have a rich father or a powerful uncle," he said. "We only have the customers that support us."

Alibaba's spectacular rise from a start-up in Ma's apartment 15 years ago to one of the world's largest companies today is proof that "80% of the people in China can be successful," he said.

H! elp small guys. Because small guys will be big

Ma has set aside $3 billion to invest in a charitable trust. His priorities are the environment and education.

He said millions of people in China will develop "health problems" if nothing is done to combat air and water pollution. But he sounded optimistic about being able to change this, noting that people doubted his business ambitions too.

Ma also stressed the need to invest in culture. "I don't want people in China to have deep pockets but shallow minds," he said.

Ma, who has said he admires Forrest Gump, ended his remarks with a simple formula for changing the world.

"The secret here is helping those who want to be successful. Help young people. Help small guys. Because small guys will be big. Young people will have the seeds you bury in their minds and when they grow up they will change the world."

More coverage

Alibaba founder Jack Ma now China's richest man

Alibaba IPO means a big payday for Jack Ma

Meet four kings of Alibaba's online retail empire

Who is Jack Ma?   Who is Jack Ma?

Saturday, September 20, 2014

The fight against Ebola is grossly underfunded

ebola economic impact NEW YORK (CNNMoney) The Ebola virus has already killed thousands in West Africa, an immeasurable loss for many families. As medical workers try to quell its spread, global organizations are calculating the economic impact of the disease.

"Their economies are basically being devastated," said Daniel Epstein, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization. "Economic activity has halted in many areas there. The harvest isn't going on. People can't fly in and fly out."

WHO workers even had difficulty flying into the Ebola-stricken nations of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, Epstein said.

Over 2,600 people have died, according to the latest WHO count. If Ebola is not contained this year, the cost could increase by eight times its current estimate, according to a report published Wednesday by the World Bank Group. Ebola's toll in Liberia alone could affect almost 5% of the country's GDP this year, the World Bank said.

"Our findings make clear that the sooner we get an adequate containment response and decrease the level of fear and uncertainty, the faster we can blunt Ebola's economic impact," said World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in a statement.

In need of aid: The United Nations said this week that $1 billion in aid is needed to contain the Ebola outbreak. But a UN database tally of donations shows that many wealthy Western nations that verbally pledged support have donated paltry sums to fight the disease.

Total donations, including non-binding pledges, to fight Ebola are about $388 million, well under half of the United Nation's estimate, according to data from Financial Tracking Service, a database that tracks humanitarian aid and is managed by the United Nations. The Obama administration announced this week that it hopes to send an additional $500 million in huma! nitarian aid to the West African nations this fiscal year.

Even with the U.S. government's significant aid proposal, the total number would still fall short of the United Nations' estimate of a billion.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon went as far as saying "our best estimate is that we need a 20-fold increase in assistance" at a meeting this week.

Some private foundations have also stepped in. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has donated over $8 million so far to various organizations to fight Ebola. That is more than the combined donations of Canada, Germany and Spain, according to FTS data.

Overall, the Gates Foundation has pledged $38 million, which eclipses many more countries.

Epstein noted that countries such as Canada contribute to the aid effort in non-monetary ways by sending aid workers and conducting medical research.

"We're also at the stage where people are seeing what the landscape is and figuring out, what's the best way to donate funds?" Epstein said. "In a humanitarian crisis, there are often delays between what people realize what they have to do and what they actually do."

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

How 3D Printing's Adoption Rate Could Accelerate Due to This New Partnership

Software maker Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK  ) announced today that it's collaborating with Local Motors, a leader in open-source 3D printing hardware innovation. Local Motors will be using Autodesk's Spark, a new open platform for 3D printing, as it continues to develop the Strati, the world's first 3D-printed full-size car.

First, let's look at Autodesk's 3D printing initiative and its just-announced team-up, and then we'll explore the potential ramifications of the success of this partnership.

Conceptual rendering of Strati. Source: Cincinnati.

Audodesk's 3D printing initiative and the Local Motors team-up
Earlier this year, Autodesk announced plans to introduce Spark. Spark is aimed at making it simpler and more reliable to print 3D models and easier to control how those models are printed. Essentially, Spark acts as a bridge between the design and 3D printing of an object, as it translates digital design data from modeling software into a form that's required by a 3D printer. At the time of this announcement, Autodesk also said it would be launching a 3D printer, which will serve as a reference implementation for Spark (for those who don't already have their own hardware).

The Spark platform can be used for the full range of 3D printing applications from consumer to industrial. Aubrey Cattell, Autodesk's Director of Business Development, told me via a phone interview that the company views the manufacturing space as having the most potential. So, it's no surprise that its first Spark team-up involves a large-scale, industrial project.

The Strati project, which I've previously written about, is a fascinating and timely one. No doubt, the timeliness factor is why Audodesk released its announcement today. Just last week, the first Strati was 3D-printed live at the International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago. The body of the vehicle was printed in a carbon-fiber-reinforced ABS thermoplastic by the BAAM (big area additive manufacturing) machine, which was just developed by privately held Cincinnati and the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Lab. I brought Foolish readers news of this partnership last February. The BAAM machine is an ultra-fast, large-scale polymer 3D printer that reportedly is 200 to 500 times faster and capable of printing polymer components 10 times larger than commercially available printers. 

BAAM machine printing the Strati at the IMTS. Source: Autodesk.

While the 3D printing of the Strati was successfully accomplished at the IMTS, there were some bumps in the road, as would be expected with any new technology. That's where Autodesk's Spark comes in. Spark will help connect automobile digital design data to the BAAM 3D printer in a streamlined way for easier visualization and optimization of 3D prints.

"The Spark platform is set to accelerate manufacturing innovation," said Alex Fiechter, head of community management for Local Motors, in the press release. "From capturing our ideas more accurately to guiding Design for Additive Manufacturing (DFAM) and simplifying the creation of machine code, Spark will help us to turn digital models into actual physical production parts far faster [emphasis mine] than was previously possible."

Spark's goal: Lighting a fire under the adoption of 3D printing
Both Autodesk's Spark platform and the company's 3D printer design are open and freely available to hardware manufacturers, software developers, and others. This move marks the first time a major company has entered the 3D printing open source space.

Why would Autodesk introduce such a platform?

Simple. Autodesk makes computer-aided design (CAD) software for 3D printing, as well as other uses, so the company's potential market for its design software will increase as 3D printing becomes more prevalent. Thus, Autodesk has a big incentive to do what it can to make 3D printing as streamlined and user-friendly as possible.

Autodesk isn't the only player in the 3D printing design software space, but it's one of the biggest. France-based Dassault Systemes is also a major force in this market.

Fellow Fool Tim Beyers nicely summed up the company's strategy after Autodesk made its 3D printing plans public earlier this year: It's "reminiscent of how Google used the Nexus brand to accelerate development of third-party Android devices," he said. Tim says that he believed Autodesk's strategy was a smart one -- and I agree. Autodesk doesn't have much to lose and has everything to gain. After all, 3D printing is a huge growth space. According to Wohlers Report 2014, the global 3D printing industry is expected to grow from $3.07 billion in 2013 to more than $21 billion by 2020; that's greater than a 31% compounded annual growth rate. Furthermore, if Spark can speed up the adoption of 3D printing, then Wohlers' estimates could prove to be conservative.

Beyond Autodesk, there are certainly other potential winners if Spark helps increase the rate at which industrial companies adopt or further embrace 3D printing: manufacturers of 3D printers and companies that provide 3D printing services for industrial applications. This includes, to varying degrees, 3D Systems, Stratasys, ExOne, Arcam, voxeljet, and Materialise. Materialise doesn't make 3D printers like the others; however, it does provide 3D printing services.

Foolish final thoughts
If the Autodesk-Local Motors team-up can demonstrate that the Spark platform increases the ease and efficiency of Local Motors' 3D printing efforts on its Strati project and beyond, Spark could accelerate the adoption of 3D printing for industrial applications. This would likely benefit some or all of the publicly traded 3D printer manufacturers and 3D printing service providers. It could also light a fire under Audodesk's 3D printing design software sales.

As with the Strati, investors should stay tuned. We'll be keeping you updated as to the progress of this team-up as well as any new Spark partnership agreements that Autodesk inks. 

The under-the-radar best way to profit from the Apple Watch
You may have missed profiting from Apple's huge stock price run-up due to the introduction of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. However, the Apple Watch -- just announced last week -- could trump the everyday impact of its existing products. And one small company is poised to profit as wearable computing products take off. Its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early investors. To be one of them, click here.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Retiring Soon? Here Are 3 Important Things to Think About

Source: Steven Depolo via Flickr.

A lot of the investment advice you read has to do with planning for retirement -- and for good reason. After all, achieving financial freedom and having the means to live life on your own terms is a big part of the "American dream."

However, what should you do with your money after you retire? Should you keep your money in the same investments, or should you get more conservative? And how much should you withdraw every year?

Plan to get conservative, but not too conservative
Having the majority of your investments in stocks or stock funds is completely fine, even during the latter stages of your working life. Many people achieve big portfolios that can see them through retirement by harnessing the awesome power of compounding stock returns.

However, once you retire, some changes may be necessary. In a nutshell, you need to find a compromise between risk and return. You certainly want your portfolio to produce enough income that your nest egg will last throughout your retirement, but you also don't want to be at risk of losing a substantial portion of your portfolio if the economy goes bad.

The exact mix of assets that is right for you depends on a few factors, such as the size of your portfolio relative to your income requirements and how old you'll be when you retire. For example, if you need $50,000 in annual income and you have a $1 million portfolio, you'll probably need to take some risk to achieve that income throughout retirement. And if you retire early, you'll want to take extra caution, as your money will need to last through a longer retirement.

There is no magic mix of stocks and fixed income for new retirees, but you'll want to have significant exposure to both. The stock portion of your portfolio should be in a diverse basket of high-dividend, low-volatility stocks (or stock funds) with a long record of raising their dividends. Consider companies such as AT&T or ExxonMobil, which pay respective yields of 5.3% and 2.8% and have increased their dividends for 29 years and 31 years, respectively.

Fixed-income investments should consist of a mix of high-quality bonds (or bond funds) with various maturity dates. However, use caution when choosing bonds with long maturities, as these get hit hardest when interest rates rise.

This combination of rock-solid dividend stocks and predictable fixed-income securities should produce decent income while still allowing your investments to grow over time. And both types of investments are relatively low-risk, so you'll be able to sleep well at night.

You'll also want to adapt your portfolio to changing market conditions. For example, if interest rates jump through the roof and investment-grade bonds start to yield 8% or so, it may be a good idea to shift some of your money out of stocks and lock in those high rates for years to come.

Don't rely on "withdrawal rules"
An oft-cited piece of advice by retirement experts is the so-called "4% rule." Basically, this says you should withdraw 4% of your retirement savings during your first year of retirement and give yourself cost-of-living increases to keep up with inflation in subsequent years. The idea is that if you follow this rule, your money should last throughout your life.

The problem with this is that you'll need a different amount of money in every year of your retirement. For example, healthcare costs can vary dramatically from year to year, and they tend to take up a growing portion of our spending as we age. Maybe you know your grandchild is going to college in a few years and you plan to help with tuition. . It's best to anticipate changing expenses throughout your retirement, so plan your withdrawal strategy accordingly.

Further, the market performs differently from year to year. Even if your money is in fixed-income instruments, the value of those investments will rise and fall as the market fluctuates, so you may find yourself having to cut back during tough years. For a basic example, let's say your portfolio is worth $1 million when you retire, so you decide to withdraw $40,000 during your first year of retirement, leaving $960,000 in your account. Let's also say that the market has a bad year and the value of your portfolio drops by 5% during that year to $912,000. Instead of taking out another $40,000 the next year, it might be a good time to cut back your spending (temporarily) to, say $30,000.

By doing so, you'll leave more money in your account to take advantage of the eventual market rebound, and your money will be more likely to outlive your retirement. And this advice goes both ways: If the market has a good year and your portfolio rises by 5%, you may decide to take out a little extra to treat yourself.

Your withdrawal strategy needs to adapt to changing market conditions and adjustments in your expenses from year to year.

Social Security: When to start collecting
Americans can begin receiving Social Security benefits as early as age 62 and as late as age 70. While this eight-year window may not sound like a huge time frame, your choice of when to claim benefits can make a big impact on the amount you receive throughout your lifetime. This should definitely be taken into account when planning your income requirements in retirement.

Let's say that your estimated Social Security benefit at full retirement age -- between 66 and 67 for most of today's prospective retirees, as defined by the SSA -- is $1,000 per month, or $12,000 per year, and that you've decided you'll need a total of $60,000 per year to live comfortably after you retire. If you begin collecting benefits as soon as you're eligible at age 62, this amount would drop to about $750 per month, and you would need to withdraw $51,000 per year from your savings in order to bridge the gap. On the other hand, if you wait until age 70, your benefit could rise to $1,320. This means that only $44,160 of your $60,000 income requirement would need to come from your investments.

Everyone is different
The bottom line is that, whether you have a $50,000 investment portfolio or a $50 million one, you need to adjust your post-retirement strategy to fit your own life. More importantly, your strategy needs to be adaptable to your changing lifestyle, as well as changing market conditions.

How to get even more income during retirement
Social Security plays a key role in your financial security, but it's not the only way to boost your retirement income. In our brand-new free report, our retirement experts give their insight on a simple strategy to take advantage of a little-known IRS rule that can help ensure a more comfortable retirement for you and your family. Click here to get your copy today.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Apple and Samsung Should Fear Sony's PlayStation 4 Dominance

As an electronics giant, Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) has certainly seen better days: Once industry-leading, many of its most well-known products have long been outclassed.

Sony's Walkman was overtaken by Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) iPod a decade ago -- its TV business has been a consistent source of red ink for just as long. Unable to run it profitably, Sony sold off its Vaio PC division earlier this year.

There is, however, one bright spot among Sony's many struggling electronics: Its latest video game console. Sony's PlayStation 4 has set sales records, and consistently outsold its competition, often by a ratio of three-to-one.

Now Sony is looking to extend its video game dominance into other product categories -- its newest mobile devices interface directly with the PlayStation 4. Given the popularity of Sony's console, this unique feature could give Sony's products a leg up in a market that's thus far been dominated by Apple and Samsung (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF  ) .

Sony adds remote play to Xperia
Like a DVD player, video game consoles have traditionally required a connected TV to function. That's understandable, but somewhat of a major limitation -- as long as that console is in use, the TV it's attached to is fully occupied. At the same time, (and perhaps even more limiting) games can only be enjoyed while sitting directly in front of that TV.

Sony's PlayStation 4, though, is an exception: Using remote play, PlayStation 4 games can be streamed wirelessly to a compatible device. In other words, a PlayStation 4 owner can, if they so choose, enjoy their games while someone else watches a movie on the TV, or play their PlayStation 4 in a different room of the house -- perhaps one that lacks a TV entirely.

Right now, the only remote play-compatible device is Sony's Vita -- a $200 handheld console that's largely been a commercial failure. But that's about to change: Later this year, Sony's next-generation mobile devices will go on sale -- and all will offer remote play functionality.

This list includes Sony's flagship Xperia Z3 smartphone, as well as the slightly smaller Xperia Z3 compact and the Xperia Z3 tablet. Paired with a controller, these devices offer PlayStation 4 owners the ability to play their games without a dedicated TV.

Sony's mobile division has been struggling
Sony's mobile division hasn't been a total failure, but it has fallen short of the company's expectations, and has largely been overshadowed by Apple and Samsung.

When Sony reported its first quarter results in July, it cut its outlook for smartphone sales -- Sony now expects to sell just 43 million smartphones this year, fewer than the 50 million it had anticipated in May. Worse, Sony said its mobile division lost money and will only break-even in 2014 -- it had previously been a source of profit amid otherwise poor results.

In contrast, Apple and Samsung sold more than 150 million and more than 300 million smartphones, respectively, last year. Both firms have consistently generated billions in profits in recent quarters, with the bulk of their earnings coming from sale of smartphones and tablets.

80 million reasons to believe in Sony
Can Sony's mobile division overtake Apple and Samsung? In the near-term it doesn't seem likely, but remote play functionality could help Sony poach many of both companies' best customers.

Last month, Sony said that it had sold more than 10 million PlayStation 4 consoles to end-consumers -- a stunning achievement given that the console had been on the market for fewer than nine months. Its predecessor, the PlayStation 3, initially struggled, but went on to sell more than 80 million units worldwide. Given its impressive early sales, the PlayStation 4 could ultimately sell as well as, or much better than, the PlayStation 3.

With the added perk of remote play, many PlayStation 4 owners could opt for Sony's mobile devices over rival products from Apple and Samsung.

If so, it could be particularly devastating to the South Korean tech giant, as Samsung's mobile products, like Sony's, are powered by the Android operating system. Apple, with its control of iOS, is a bit more insulated, but dedicated gamers could still find the added functionality too enticing to pass up. Obviously, there are many more smartphone and tablet owners than there are PlayStation 4 owners, but remote play could still conceivably convert millions of buyers -- and given the PlayStation 4's relatively high price tag ($399), more valuable buyers at that.

Only time will tell if remote play emerges as a must-have feature, but with Sony's new hardware-based ecosystem, continued strong PlayStation 4 sales should be seen as a positive for its mobile business -- and a slight negative for its rivals like Apple and Samsung.

Leaked: Apple's next smart device (warning, it may shock you)
Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Why Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. Stock Has Plunged 45% in 2014


Source: Lumber Liquidators

In 2012 and 2013, Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL  ) was one of the darlings of the stock market, with the specialist in hardwood and other flooring materials rode the wave of positive sentiment about the recovering housing market to record-high levels. Yet even as broader-based home-improvement retailers Home Depot (NYSE: HD  ) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW  ) have largely managed to sustain their share-price advantages even as fears increase about a possible end to the recent rise in housing prices, Lumber Liquidators has seen questions come up about its ability to keep growing at the pace investors expect. So far, Lumber Liquidators hasn't given investors the answers they want to hear, and the stock has plunged as a result. Let's take a closer look at Lumber Liquidators to see whether the drop in its share price is a buying opportunity or just a sign of further weakness to come.

Stats on Lumber Liquidators

2014 YTD Return

(44.6%)

Expected 2014 Revenue Growth

7.3%

Expected 2014 EPS Growth

(2.5%)

Expected 5-Year Growth Rate

18%

Source: Yahoo! Finance

What sent Lumber Liquidators stumbling?
2014 definitely hasn't been the best of years for Lumber Liquidators, but it has taken a while for investors to get a clear sense of exactly what's behind the stock's sluggish performance. Early in the year, it was easy for investors to blame a harsh winter season for poor results. When Lumber Liquidators reported first-quarter results in May, it reported sales that were more than 6% less than investors had expected, and earnings per share fell short by about 20%. Indeed, Lumber Liquidators was able to quantify the impact of winter weather on the retailer, pointing to same-store sales gains of 8.5% in areas unaffected by harsh weather compared to a plunge of 13% in same-store sales in harder-hit areas. At the time, CEO Robert Lynch seemed to assure investors that the shortfall was a temporarily glitch.

Yet by the time the second quarter rolled around, Lumber Liquidators failed to see the recovery that nervous investors were counting on. Instead, Lumber Liquidators issued a warning in July about its second-quarter results, with the company expecting plunging same-store sales yet again along with declines in margins that hurt earnings. The company cited greater promotional discounting from competitors as well as a jump in general overhead expenses, especially because of higher advertising, legal, and professional expenses.


Source: Wikimedia Commons

Put together, Lumber Liquidators now expects the entire year to be poor, cutting its sales guidance by between 9% and 10% and projecting that its same-store sales growth would fall to the low single-digit percentage range. Overall, a $0.60 per share earnings cut represented about 17% to 18% of its previous guidance, signaling that Lumber Liquidators doesn't expect improving conditions in the near term.

Can Lumber Liquidators bounce back?
The key question for Lumber Liquidators is what happens to the housing market. One of the most troubling things about the company's problems is that they've come despite relative strength in housing thus far. Indeed, the positive results and optimistic expectations for Home Depot and Lowe's have come in part from investors being impressed that the housing market has managed to avoid losing steam thus far.

Of course, calls for a slowdown in housing have proven premature before. Last year's jump in interest rates led many to conclude that mortgage rates would move sharply higher. Yet after adjusting to new conditions, rates have flattened out and even declined in the interim, helping to sustain ongoing gains in home prices. If Lumber Liquidators can tap into that positive momentum in housing before the recovery runs its course, then its recent share-price swoon will make the stock look like a bargain in hindsight.

Building up Lumber Liquidators' future
Lumber Liquidators has to convince investors that it can rebound from its recent troubles and demonstrate the same drive that made the flooring specialist's stock soar during 2012 and 2013. Otherwise, this year's 45% drop in the shares might merely reflect the first stage of a tough long-term future for Lumber Liquidators.

Warren Buffett: This new technology is a "real threat"
At the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett admitted this emerging technology is threatening his biggest cash-cow. While Buffett shakes in his billionaire-boots, only a few investors are embracing this new market which experts say will be worth over $2 trillion. Find out how you can cash in on this technology before the crowd catches on, by jumping onto one company that could get you the biggest piece of the action. Click here to access a FREE investor alert on the company we're calling the "brains behind" the technology.

Monday, September 8, 2014

Apple Payments Entry May Imperil American Express Rates, Says Credit Suisse

Apple‘s (AAPL) potential move into the market for electronic payments at retail point of sale may already be upsetting the, uh, apple cart for payment processors, according to a note today from Credit Suisse‘s Moshe Orenbuch, who follows shares of American Express (AXP) and who has an Underperform rating on that stock. 

Writes Orenbuch, at the outset, an Apple entry will probably be just a “ripple” rather than a “wave” for traditional payments firms. 

However, “Longer-term, a successful Apple payment system roll-out would in our view most likely disrupt the interchange revenue stream earned by card issuing banks and 3-party providers such as AXP, as merchants clamor for lower fees given the rise of fraud combating technologies.”

Notes Orenbuch, Apple’s negotiating lower fees on transactions:

Reports suggest that five of the six credit card issuers in our coverage universe (the largest issuers of V, MA and AXP) have agreed to lower discount rates by 15-25 bps (and likely incur other costs as well) to be included in AAPL’s digital wallet. While AAPL may assume some of the increased fraud risk due to “Card Not Present,” we believe the fear of being “left out” of a payment system via the iPhone and iWatch is a more compelling driver to lower rates.

He thinks that could set up a situation where American Express may have to negotiate with other parties:

Although an agreement with AAPL may be a “special situation” given its size and influence, we believe more merchants and merchant aggregators may begin demanding concessions by AXP on its discount rate. We would note that 15 bps of discount rate pressure on the US business would represent $0.60 per share in 2015 (more than 10% of 2015 EPS), unless offset by lowering of rewards.

American Express shares today are down 53 cents, or 0.6%, at $89.08. Apple stock is off 17 cents at $98.80.